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Weekly outlook for EurUsd

محمد منذر Mohamad Mounzer

2009-10-11 18:54:26

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Candlestick analysis

As the pair fell through the last day and closed above its lowest point making a long red candlestick with a short wick at the bottom, this is a recognizable pattern known as Bearish Belt Holds Candlestick Pattern as it is formed during upward trend and after a bullish blue candle.
This indicates a market trend reversal but needs a confirmation in the coming day.
We shall wait a red candlestick or a large gap down or another lower closing price

Candlestick analysis

Four hours chart analysis:

The precaution rest of the pair 1.4650-1.4817 made the bias neutral.
Only a break for one of these two levels will invalidate this bias and turn it either bearish or bullish.
The break of 1.4817-1.4844 will turn the bias bullish and will lead the price upwards under the ceiling of the andrews Pitchfork towards the 1.4967 resistance level coinsided with the upper brown leg of the equidistant ascending channel.
For the bearish bias to comeback the pair has to overcome the 55 EMA(white) and then 1.4650 level showing that the ascending wave started at 1.4480 has finished.
The price then will continue downwards and then we are against two options:
1- Respecting the lower leg of the equidistant ascending channel and retracing back
2- Sliding through it towards 1.4425-1.4480 support zone and either retracing back to re-validate the validity of the green ascending channel or breaking it downwards towards the lower brown leg of the ascending channel consolating the green one.
A strong support level is shining well at 1.4296(50%fib) zone.

Daily chart analysis:

The last day of this week was bearish.The possibility of a double top pattern came into view.If this pattern is confirmed with the break of 1.4425-1.4447 level this will mean that the wave began at 1.2329 is finished.Invalidation of this double top will happen only with the penetrating of 1.4844 strong resistance which will lead the pair towards 1.4967.
If 1.4967 level failed to resist then preach the 1.5284 level.Reaching the 1.5284 level will dominate the green ascending channel over the brown one.

 

 




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